The largest of six fire centres in BC, the Prince George Fire Centre clocks in at roughly 336,000km2, and gladly received more snowfall than the prior season, but that may not provide enough certainty to sail past “The Spring Dip,” or the apparition of Holdover Fires before predicting a 2026 fire season outcome. To give us an idea of what is going on in the forests of our Fire Centre, BC Wildfire Service (BCWFS) Information Officer, Karley Desrosiers. She feels that we are starting the year off in a better place than last year with more snow on the ground, but the first hurdle to get past is “The Spring Dip.” Desrosiers explains, “it’s this period of time in the spring where the fuels haven’t absorbed that moisture, and even though we do see generally cooler temperatures in the spring, there is still this period of heightened risk of wildfire, until those forest fuels have absorbed that moisture from the ground." This risk is higher still in grassy areas before new growth overwhelms last season's cured blades.
Escalating the risk in that timeframe before rain comes are holdover, or zombie, fires which burned into subsurface muskeg during the prior season. BCWFS searches for these hotspots with satellite and aerial surveillance with the intention of putting them out before they flare up to an unmanageable size.
Assuming a forest stand overcomes these factors without igniting, rainfall amounts in May & June heavily determine the likelihood of fire for the following summer months. If all these factors, “The Spring Dip,” holdover fires and precipitation are satisfied, one prevailing variable affects any fire weather prediction: drought. Years of successive drought, not just in the Prince George Fire Centre, but all over the province provides an element of risk that can’t be denied.
While Desrosiers admits that accurate weather prediction cannot be relied upon more than a couple days out at time, when it comes to predicting the 2026 fire season she determines, “The drought is kind of the biggest factor that does indicate that it could be more challenging than it would otherwise, if the drought was completely eliminated.”
Whether rain is in the prognosis or not, it has been charted on the forecast of BCWFS’s hopes for 2026.
- Ian Gregg, CFURadio 88.7FM, Due North News, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter
This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.
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